The expert has warned that the crescent moon will be impossible to sight on February 17
A moonsighting expert has called on Muslims globally to ensure that the date of Ramadan 2026 – along with all other significant events in the Islamic calendar – is determined by recognised scientific calculations, rather than following convenient but potentially inaccurate forecasts.
Dr Raja Zahid Nawaz, a frequent commentator on lunar observation and the Islamic calendar who shares his analysis through social media and broadcaster Noor TV, has cautioned that on February 17, the first faint crescent of the newborn moon will be impossible to sight from the UK, Saudi Arabia, Morocco or elsewhere due to well-established astronomical factors – including “low altitude, insufficient elongation, minimal illumination and inadequate lag time after sunset.”
In layman’s terms, the moon will not be visible, stated Dr Nawaz. He is encouraging individual Muslims not to simply follow unofficial or incorrect announcements, as this risks perpetuating a cycle of misinformation.
He told Birmingham Live : “As Ramadan approaches once again, so too does a familiar and frustrating cycle: premature announcements, questionable crescent claims and media outlets repeating statements that simply do not withstand scrutiny. The start of the Islamic month is not guesswork. It is not sentiment. And it should certainly not be shaped by convenience.”
He added: “Each year, Muslim communities across the UK wait for confirmation of the new moon. For some, this is determined through astronomical calculations; for others, through verified physical sighting of the crescent – either locally or in countries with established and credible moon-sighting systems. Both approaches have scholarly foundations. What does not have any foundation, however, is claiming a sighting when visibility is scientifically impossible.”
Dr Nawaz continued: “Yet, based on previous years, it would not be surprising if announcements are made regardless, often relying on pre-calculated calendars rather than verified sightings. What is even more concerning is what follows: media outlets across the world repeat the claim that ‘the crescent has been sighted’ without question, without context and without verification. This domino effect does real damage. It undermines scientific credibility, creates confusion within communities and erodes trust. Experts who have read detailed astronomical assessments are left wondering how an ‘impossible’ sighting has suddenly become a confirmed one.”
He added: “If a country chooses to follow calculation-based calendars, it should say so clearly. If a decision is based on the birth of the moon, that too should be transparently stated. What must end is the practice of presenting calendar-based decisions as physical sightings. Accuracy is not a minor technicality – it is a matter of integrity.”
Dr Nawaz issued an appeal to all those participating in moon-sighting declarations: “Ramadan for millions is a month built on reflection, discipline and truthfulness. Announcing its start should reflect those same values. Communities deserve honesty about the criteria being used, not vague statements that blur the line between calculation and sighting. My call is simple: be transparent, be precise and stop making claims that science has already ruled out. As anticipation builds for Ramadan, clarity – not confusion – should guide the conversation.”
At present, the start date of Ramadan in the UK is expected to be on February 18 or 19, on account of the moonsighting not being possible on February 17. Islamic Relief have shared their provisional timetable for the month beginning on February 18, but have stated that this will be updated depending on the confirmed moonsighting.
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