London’s famous black cabs could be gone in just 20 years unless action is taken to stop their decline, a thinktank has warned.
The Centre for London says the number of taxis on the capital’s roads is dropping so fast that, if the trend continues, there won’t be any left by 2045.
So, what’s causing the decline? A mix of rising costs, fewer new drivers, and competition from private hire firms like Uber. The number of black cabs licensed by TfL has fallen from 22,810 in 2013-14 to just 14,470 in 2023-24. And new drivers? In 2024, only 104 new licences were issued – compared to 1,010 in 2016.
One of the biggest issues outlined is the cost of electric taxis, which are now the only type allowed for new licences. Since 2017, prices have shot up by about 40%, while financial support has dried up. A TfL scrappage scheme is gone, and government grants for plug-in taxis have dropped to £4,000, set to disappear completely in 2026.
Then there’s the other issue with the Knowledge test – an infamous exam so tough that it actually changes the shape of drivers’ brains (no, I’m not making this up – there’s a full report written by The Guardian). A survey by cab-hailing app Freenow found that over half of private hire drivers ruled out switching to black cabs because the test takes too long (typically three years or more), and nearly a third said it was just too difficult.
To turn things around, the Centre for London is calling for changes to the Knowledge test to make it more accessible and wants the government to offer interest-free loans to help new drivers afford electric cabs.
According to The Guardian, Antonia Jennings, the thinktank’s chief executivesays London simply can’t afford to lose its black cabs: “They’re a huge part of the city’s identity. We can’t just let them disappear. Beyond that, they offer safe, convenient, and accessible transport that Londoners rely on.”
But not everyone is convinced black cabs are doomed. Steve McNamara, general secretary of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Associationisn’t too worried said to The Guardian: “We’ve been here since the time of Oliver Cromwell – we’re not going anywhere.” Still, he admits the trade is at a crossroads.
So, is this the beginning of the end for black cabs, or will they adapt and survive? Only time will tell.
