Bus passenger numbers in London reached a peak of 2.4 billion in 2014, but since then have fallen to 1.8 billion in 2025. This decline is now exercising the Mayor and GLA Transport Committee, but it is not a new phenomenon. From 1958 to the early 1980s there was steady decline in bus usage. In the ten years to December 1969 the scheduled fleet fell from 7756 to 6900, if Country buses and Green Line services are included. Scheduled red buses fell from 6451 to 5785.
This decline reflected a growth in private car ownership and poor industrial relations. A prolonged strike in 1958 precipitated the decline; dozens of routes were withdrawn from January 1966 in response to an overtime ban. The increasing number of private cars added to congestion and also to bus journey times, especially at peak periods. A record was set on Maundy Thursday, 1972 when a number 15 took eleven hours to complete its journey, including 55 minutes in Edgware Road without moving. Slow journeys then were the main deterrent to using the bus; and they are again now.
The seeds of recovery began with Fare’s Fair in 1981. The fare stages were replaced by a simplified system of four zones. Though the scheme, which extended to the Underground, was ruled illegal after a challenge by Bromley Council (which had no Underground services), the Mayor was able to revise his zonal system in a way that satisfied the courts and reduced the cost of travel by public transport.
Other factors were working in favour of buses. Parking meters, introduced in 1959 but rendered ineffective by vandalism, were replaced by Controlled Parking Zones which gave priority to locals and their visitors (tradespeople) over commuters. Parking spaces diminished in numbers, and instead of driving to zone 2 for public transport, cars were left at home. The decline in London’s population from its peak in 1939 ended in 1983 and the population began to increase again.
The introduction of the Congestion Charge Zone (CCZ) in 2003, along with improvements to bus services, boosted bus use. Additional buses on the 38, then the most heavily used route with more passengers than the Croydon Tramlink, were filled within six months. New buses that were better suited to one person operation increased efficiency, and some frequencies were improved, though the loss of bus conductors was far from universally welcomed.
But congestion began to return once more, and it worsened when the short-lived (2007-2010) western extension to the CCZ covering parts of Chelsea, Kensington and Westminster came to an end. Many people argue that the CCZ is an essentially limited response to congestion across London, and that a system of road pricing is needed to regulate road use. The railways, after all, have had some success in regulating use of their services at peak times through their complex fare structures.
A number of factors have accentuated the decline in usage of bus services. The success of the cyclists lobby has in some cases given priority to the legitimate safety needs of predominantly fit white males over the needs of people with disabilities, the range and extent of which is not always understood. Some bus lanes were replaced by cycle lanes, with consequent increase in bus journey times.
Road closures and Low Traffic Networks (LTNs) have not helped. Though many have been successful and welcomed by local residents, in some cases insufficient thought was given to bus routes (especially important diversionary routes) with the result that stops are not served and journey times extended. Having nowhere to board the bus within 500 yards of home is bound to discourage bus use, and may prevent travel to work.
Quality contracts were introduced to incentivise operators to maintain a good service, but they have outlived their usefulness and too often lead to unnecessary delays as “the driver is instructed to wait in order to regulate the service”.
Work from home was already on the increase before COVID and has clearly had an impact on peak services, including a change to the hours at which footfall peaks.
Information at bus stops is less assiduously kept up to date (one stop I know has a poster upside down, another has timetables dated 2023 and 2025 for the same route). Countdown information is often inaccurate or missing.
Like diversionary routes, little thought is given to bus turning arrangements. The result is that as cuts to routes are made, the terminal points are chosen for operational reasons rather than reflecting where a significant number of passengers want to board or alight. The Mayor relies on the hopper fare to justify forcing people to change buses but the fare is irrelevant to pass holders or people hitting the daily cap. It does not address the added uncertainty of total journey time, or the inconvenience of changing buses in inclement weather.
Given the time taken to bring new railway projects to fruition, the only hope of meeting the mayor’s target of 80% of journeys by sustainable means lies with the bus. Cycling may have doubled, but it still represents a small proportion of journeys made.
Andrew Bosi, Trustee
